Okay, I've thought it through and looked at all realistic possibilities, this is what I think is going to happen in the US Presidential Election of this year:

Scenario A: Both the R Primary and the General Election are ran fairly, no tricks (the probability of this is practically zero).
Result: Total Trump Victory.
Trump wins both, it's not even close. Doesn't mean I suddenly like him, but it's what's going to happen in a straight rematch with Biden, although I think this stays true even if the D's nominate Newsom or something. In a fair election, Trump is unbeatable.

Scenario B: The R Primary is rigged against Trump and they nominate someone else (The probability of this is moderate).
Result: Total Republican Party Extermination.
Trump runs as an independent out of spite, possibly starting his own MAGA party in retaliation. This spits the votes and gives the victory to the D's. Trump's base will not vote for the other R candidate, his base aren't "Republicans," not even the ones that used to be, they are "MAGA," now. they don't want Diet Trump, they don't want DeSantis, they don't want Vivek. It's Trump or nothing to them, no substitutes. This will ultimately lead to the Republican Party losing it's status as a major party, due to being branded a "trader party," by at least 2/3, and being ultimately dissolved or relegated to third party basis in the next ten years. The two new major US political parties will be "MAGA," and "Democrat," but the later will be very different, more like a true "uniparty," just more blatant now. The existing establishment R's may view this as an ultimately favorable outcome to them, and consider the suicide of the party an acceptable sacrifice. Trump doesn't care about any of this, he knows what'll happen, this is now a revenge thing for him now.

Scenario C: The R primary is fair, they nominate Trump, but the General is rigged in favor of Biden/whoever replaces him (The probability of this is high).
Result: Status Quo is retained.
The R's will coordinate with the D's to rig the election against themselves, because the possibility of another Trump victory is far more dangerous to them then the continuity of the Biden admin. His base will still be pissed, but enough of them are still boomercons who will still have it in their heads that they have the D's instead of the uniparty to blame, and that will keep them docile enough to keep the R party alive in this scenario (it's easier for them if they, and by extension Trump, appear to be *losers* not traders). The R's are aware that they're going to have to keep doing this for as long as it takes for Trump to eventually die, since he will *never* stop running, but that's a sacrifice they're willing to make.

WILDCARDS:

Trump dies (be it of natural causes, or otherwise) - depending on how this plays out this could be the best possible thing for the R's, not only do they have a martyr now, but their biggest problem gets solved overnight. It's the only scenario in which I think anyone who isn't Trump wins fairly

Biden dies (be it of natural causes, or otherwise) - the D's will probobly install Newsom since he's got some name recognition, and they know Harris is a failure who nobody would believe is going to win fairly, too on the nose.
I think this wouldn't change a whole lot. There's no cult of personality around any major Dem right now except Bernie, and there's no way in hell he gets picked as Biden's successor.
Only thing I think this gives is maybe a *slight* advantage to the Dems because Biden is pretty hated, but I don't think it really matters. The D's are just the "Not Trump" party now.

RFK Jr. pulls off a clinch victory - Come on, let's be serious here...

Conclusion: Biden (or another Democrat, they're basically interchangeable) will win in November.


Screencap this.