2022 Forecast, Place your bets!

@dave
Do you mean before or after the 2am mail in votes gets added?

Mail-in votes leaned blue because democrats were the ones taking the pandemic seriously, so they were more likely to avoid in-person polling.

Final numbers ended up being fairly close to polling. Trump wasn't robbed, he just lost.

And speaking of polling, it's currently looking very favorable for republicans. People are fed up.

@dave
I wish I was able to even pretend to believe things that you actually do.

Which claim do you think is wrong? That democrats were more likely to use mail-in ballots during the pandemic, or that the final results roughly matched polling?

@dave
> That democrats were more likely to use mail-in ballots during the pandemic

Sure. what ratio would you expect? 60:40? 55:45?

That the final results roughly matched polling?

Yes, I believe, that polling is bullshit, especially, if a leftie asks someone reasonable. If someone were to call me today, trust me, that diversity would be my strength...

But the main problem is this.
1) The democrats were boasting about the fact they will cheat. They were even openly calling for it.

2) This had to be THE most transparent election. Yet, all I heard was democrats saying, that even questioning the results was an attack on THEIR democracy.

3) The mere fact, that mail in voting was possible is a problem.

4) The push to get rid of trump was so well planned, they managed to
4.1) Get an universal excuse to stop anyone from questioning the integrity of election
4.2) Get a shiny object (Jan 6th) to distract attention and scare republicans by demonstrating brute force
4.3) Banned Trump from all social media WHILE HE WAS A PRESIDENT. (again, to demonstrate force)

If you get a group screaming against transparent election, I am sorry, but I simply cannot believe, that they aren't hiding something. Simple as that.

Sure. what ratio would you expect? 60:40? 55:45?

Much higher. See attached. In a lot of states the spread was huge, and there was evidence that this was going to be the case before the election, hence the term “The Red Mirage”. One of my preferred political commentators, Kyle Kulinski, was calling this a few days before the election, since many states count their mail-in ballots after the in-person ones.

Note that we saw the opposite trend in Texas, where counties started counting their ballots before election day, and so had a lot of them counted when election night began.

The people that love to point to the charts where Trump was leading early in the night but then flipped to Biden at 2AM don’t really have a good answer when you point out that this same phenomenon made it look like Biden had a chance of winning Texas for a while, even though he didn’t.

@dave
Yes, this is the final data.
You have shown me the result, not the cause.

The cause is that the democrats were taking the pandemic more seriously. Don’t you remember how it was blue states that did lockdowns first, tended to have stricter masking requirements, etc.? You had people like Candace Owens bragging about how many needless errands she was running, claiming COVID was overblown, etc?

@dave No, you missed the point.

You cannot disprove claim "the mail in votes were fake" by saying "the mail in votes were mostly blue."

That's not how burden of proof works my dude. Vote share flipping to Biden once mail-in ballots were counted was expected. That alone isn't proof of anything nefarious, and the people claiming it is are just refusing to understand the impact of COVID on politics.

All of the "proof" of mail-in ballot fraud that I've seen so far has been misrepresentation, or bad analysis in the case of that one guy claiming "anomalies" in Arizona or Nevada or whatever that "forgot" to include the sizeable portion of Independents in their analysis, rendering his findings worthless), or straight up fake news.

Audits were conducted in a lot of states, many with republican governors and leadership because they're swing states, and none of them found evidence of widespread fraud. Georgia even re-did their investigation like twice because people couldn't accept that Trump lost the state.

Anyways, to quote Hitchens, "what can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence."

@dave
"what can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence."

Exactly my point.
The election was not transparent. Therefore the result was asserted without evidence.

@dave
Tell me, what is the unreasonable claim, that needs extraordinary proof?

1) The control of one of the richest nations in the world was decided without any manipulation

2) Someone who bragged about cheating, who attacked people for questioning the results and fought against transparent election on every single oportunity MIGHT have cheated

You're doing that NEETzsche thing where you try assume your own premises in formulating the polling questions

@dave
Oh, realy?
And what else do you think I am supposed to be talking about?

Elections must be transparent, and cannot be trusted otherwise. If you cannot agree with this, then I have a bridge I would like to sell you. (You'll be rich if you tax it properly.)

"bragged about cheating" is vague bullshit. Who bragged? What "cheating" did they brag about? Was it the ballot stuffing you claim happened, or something else that for whatever reason you still think proves ballot stuffing?

"attacked people for questioning the results" is more vague bullshit. Who attacked who? In what manner were the results questioned? What was the "attack" in response?

> Elections must be transparent

Yes, and they were. If you disagree, give me specifics. What part of the election process do you believe was hidden that shouldn't have been?

I refuse to believe that with how much you like citing your sources you’ve never seen any of the videos of key districts locking people out of the counting centers and literally boarding up the windows.

I haven't. Got a link?

Here I even have a CNN link for you. That should be up your alley.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/media/detroit-windows-covered-ballots-vote-center/index.html

Were the votes that came out of this office out of line with expected results?

Nigger, what?

>use fake polling to drive narrative
>come Election Day, count ballots in secret
>wow look at that we were right all along yay democracy

Is that what you were trying to set me up for?

What you’ve presented is an interesting lead for potential fraud, but what you’re telling me that in 2 years no Trump supporters followed up on this lead to find out whether there was actual fraud?

If there was fraud, then there should be some kind of evidence of it in the data. An anomalously high number of votes, a shift towards Biden that deviates from polling in the county, etc.

Also, no, polling isn’t bullshit. In 2016, maybe you saw some dumb projections that claimed HRC had like a 97% chance to win, but those were based on cherry-picked polls. Looking at all of them, 538 projected her chances of winning at something like 71%.

71% is by no means a foregone conclusion. Play some poker and you’ll understand what losing almost 30% of the time feels like. Hillary was only favored to win, not a shoe-in.

In the end, Trump only won like 1% more of the popular vote than he was projected to. But that 1% was enough, because it was a tighter race than CNN wanted to admit.

And then what happened in 2020? Biden was further ahead in polling, 538 had him at like 90% based on all polling data, and even though Trump once again slightly outperformed polling, it wasn’t enough to overcome the gap.

“Polling is bullshit” is bullshit. There’s a margin of error where you sometimes get surprises in close races, but Trump’s 2016 victory wasn’t only really a surprise if you cherrypicked your polling data.

@dave @LukeAlmighty @matty oh oh ive got this

Election fraud truthers love to rely on "ELI5" style reddit posts since that is their mental age

@animeirl @dave @LukeAlmighty @matty if you say so bro

glad you agree

@animeirl @LukeAlmighty @dave @matty biden is still illegitimate :^)

yes, but that's because the office of the US presidency is illegitimate

@animeirl @LukeAlmighty @dave @matty i was more thinking all of the votes that were rendered retroactively illegal with ballot drop off boxes being ruled unconstitutional, among other rulings

yeah there's the 5 year old IQ I was talking about

That you think someone is misinformed isn't sufficient justification to jump straight to rudeness

this particular argument has already been rehashed so many times there isn't any new ground to tread so there's no point in engaging seriously. It's sandy hook crisis actor level nonsense. People who still believe it at this point aren't going to change their minds so the only reason to engage is personal amusement.

@animeirl @dave @Matty @Nudhul
No, there still is the "youtuber's first video" principle at play.

Dave had not seen the building being barricaded yet. That video alone should be enough to justify the entire debate.

Already watched it, it's interesting but doesn't prove anything, almost 2 years and your best evidence for fraud is "Jan 6th hearings" and "some precinct in Detroit covered up their windows". Give me a break dude.

He is right, there's no point re-litigating it, people are gonna believe what they want to believe.

@dave @LukeAlmighty @matty @animeirl why should people assume anything other than nefarious bullshit was happening when they acted in such a manner? there is no reason to trust that the results from that district are correct.

Because the people that count ballots are normal people, that they just weren't thinking too hard about the optics is plausible.

@dave @Nudhul @LukeAlmighty @matty @animeirl Don't "normal people" have instinctive awareness of optics on a higher level than extremists, who are aware of optics more on a rational level?