doomposting 

I've been thinking about something last night. I'm starting to think that this could be it, that what we're experiencing right now is the height of human civilization on Earth.
I think that, because we didn't build up nuclear energy in time, we will fail to make the transition away from fossil fuels fast enough, we'll run out, and we'll reach a point where we won't be able to make enough energy to sustain societies as they are today.
A collapse will come. But that's not the real issue. The real issue is that without an abundance of oil anymore, without that much cheap energy, human civilization won't be able to rebound, and will basically remain stuck to somewhere around steam engine stage. At best we might see steampunk become a reality.

I've been thinking about something similar for some time. Humanity owes its technological advancement to fossil fuels. To forests and critters of countless millions of years ago that died and got buried before they could decompose.
As such, ANY intelligent alien civilization NEEDS to evolve on a planet that has fossil fuels in the ground already. If an intelligent life form evolves before fossil fuels get created through geological processes, or where they don't exist for any other reason, that's it. That's a technological dead end for them. They'll be stuck at a medieval stage, forever.

"But muh solar power" NO! You're not gonna make solar panels from burning wood. If you're struggling to barely melt metal, you're not gonna have the cheap resources needed to experiment and research anything more than a basic axe and a sword.
And remember the social panic there was in the 90s, that we were cutting down all trees to make paper? Now imagine trying to sustain a high population civilization that BURNS only wood for everything.
You are not building a technological civilization off of wood. At the very minimum you need coal, but realistically you need oil. No civilization, alien or otherwise, will EVER make the transition from burning wood to solar panels. Same goes for wind. You think you'll create fine copper wire to make electric engines and generators by burning wood?

Now going back to humanity. If societies collapse. That's it. We don't have readily available oil. The reserves we still have need highly advanced machinery to extract. Machinery that might not survive a collapse, or that we'll lose the knowledge of how to use.
We still have a lot of coal, but I'm not sure if even that is easily exploitable anymore. Can you still find coal with nothing more than pickaxes as tools?
After the collapse happens, there will be no more smartphones, no more computers, no more internet, anymore. Ever. For as long as Earth continues to orbit around the Sun, humanity will continue, but will remain stuck in much more primitive societies.

This is not something I expect to happen in the next decade. Not in our lifetimes either. Could take a few centuries. But I think it could happen.
Our energy needs are growing too fast. First cryptocoin and now AI have been the world's dumbest ideas when we're struggling to deal with finding energy alternatives. And dumber ideas are sure to be on the horizon still.
IF nuclear energy had been abundant, this wouldn't have been an issue. But instead of growing nuclear capabilities, we've decimated them. Now there's talks about a revitalization. But projections for the first batches of new generation nuclear power plants are for like 2050 or something. And that's assuming the political willpower is maintained until then. Which... fucking hell people... western nations can't keep it together for 5 years, let alone decades.
Even if I assume mere stupidity, and not outright malice, the world's political system is essentially trying to kill humanity.

But going back a bit, with energy usage growing so fast, at some point something will collapse. If people start rioting and pillaging AI server farms and solar plants, if people start chaos and revolutions, you think energy plants will survive? You think fragile solar panels will be intact? You'll have South Africa style situations where the infrastructure will be compromised, and left in taters to the point where you can't even use every bit of energy making capacity you have left to create new solar panels, new windfarms, etc.
You won't be able to grow back, because trying to ration energy for basic industry instead of population needs will just get you a free noose around your neck as part of a new population revolt.
And solar panels wear out. So do wind farms. You won't be able to replace them, more and more of them will fail, until you have nothing left and are back to burning wood to stay warm during winter.

If you had an abundance of cheap oil, gas, coal, sure you can build back. Just burn more and more. But you're not building back from solar and wind.

I don't think it will happen within our lifetimes. So unless you care that much about your great-grandchildren, this really isn't something that will affect you. Not something you should care about.

But if you have some deep optimism and hope that one day humanity will reach the stars, if you're like me and hope humanity will exist forever more, discover everything there is to discover, explore all the deep blue and the cosmos, reach the pinnacle of science and technology that we can't even imagine yet... If you're romantic in that way... this is a sobering thought to consider.

re: doomposting 

@alyx I feel like this entire argument is neglecting the idea of charcoal -- a coal alternative made directly from wood.

re: doomposting 

@Nepiant @alyx charcoal burning plant is basically just the primitive nuclear plant. Basically every form of power gen we have is just heating water as hot as we can get it and passing through a turbine system to turn it and make it electricity. People literally don't realize that we literally run the world off team power even still. The only difference between steampunk and current day, is aesthetics. :guraKekw:

re: doomposting 

@Azur_Fenix @alyx Wind and solar don't run on steam (though wind DOES still use a turbine). And neither do some forms of fusion. Just saying.

re: doomposting 

@Nepiant @alyx I don't count wind or solar for a reason. They are complete and utter shit and their cost to benefit is shit too. Wind is to inconsistent and high maintenance and solar takes to much space and requires peak sunlight to be worth it. Solar is only worth it if you use the Dyson sphere method or run extremely long panels in space and use a space bridge connection to link the power back to earth or a solar reflection system to direct the light back towards a collection dish on earth (think like using a mirror to create a focused beam of light like a magnifying glass does), which would be insanely dangerous to any birds or aircraft and require a lot of very specialized workers. A wrong calculation could send them beam to basically burn a city or possibly country off the map.

As to the forms of fusion, nuclear fusion, like on the level of the sun. Isn't viable yet. An may not be. Geo power is to limited, has to be near a part where the mantle is thin enough to drill or find a natural geo vent, because drilling to reach/make geo vents not close enough to the surface isn't viable, we literally don't have the means.

Thurium is another maybe kind of tech and I don't remember if that's water heater based or not.

Also hydro gen, but you ethier need to make an artificial damn complex and reroute water to it and be sure you can stack enough water for to be for it or find a natural one that's in a location you can make a dam at and get the personal and equipment there to build and that you can keep it maintained and protected.

Ocean turbine power using deep sea current might be possible but the maintenance cost would be insane and impact on sea life too high.
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re: doomposting 

@Azur_Fenix @Nepiant
Solar wouldn't be that bad if battery tech wasn't shit and reliant on a scarce metal like lithium. There's an abundance of silicon on the planet, even if some of it would need more refinement, but you know you won't run out of it making solar panels. But lithium is rare and environmentally expensive to mine. So solar panels+batteries are just bad for a long term, main energy provider.
There are other energy storage solutions that you could couple with your solar farms, but batteries would still be the most efficient, and thus preferable.
You don't need space based solutions though. Ground based solar farms in deserts or other unusable land, and every inch of roof space is where the aim should be.
I like the idea of solar, but I'd like it more if the battery problem had a better solution than lithium-ion, that used a more abundant element. It's the biggest reason I much prefer nuclear for now.

Wind just kinda feels bad overall. You still need those batteries, and as weather gets more chaotic, they'll become far too vulnerable, with storms risking to destroy them. There will be situational locations where they will be good, but again not something you can depend on everywhere.

Geothermal is neat, and will continue working great for Greenland. I'm sure there are a few more geographical locations where it's viable, but otherwise we're not drilling down because it's not efficient enough.

Thorium is liquid salt initially, which then transfers the heat to water, boils it, and sends it to a regular generator.

For hydro generation, you won't get that many more dams constructed on rivers. But you might get inland artificial lakes, used for energy storage. You pump water in them with excess energy from solar or wind power, and when needed you run the water down through a generator.

Ocean turbines are gonna be a no go. As it is, there's a panic regarding the Atlantic current, because measurements show that it is slowing down, and scientists aren't even sure why, though the suspect is global warming and changing climate. So they might not be that dependable in time, and interfering with them could have drastic side effects planet wide. Better not.

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