Will humanity find other life in our universe?

@djsumdog
Define "find". And define "life".

Discovering an exo-planet that we detect as having a large amount of CO2 and other gasses that most likely are a result of technological pollution? Sure. It is possible it will happen at some point, but it will create endless debate about what we actually found.

Discovering an incredibly faint radio signal that is incompatible with natural origins, and can't be explained as radio pollution from our own technology? Will take a lot longer, but I could see it as a small possibility, with the benefit of being a more categorical find.

Discovering bacteria or similar simple life forms deep in the Martian ground, or one of the moons of Jupiter, quite possible, maybe even the most likely of these scenarios. But it won't be as earth shattering.

But if your "find" involves meeting face to face, and "life" involves alien beings at least as advanced as man-kind, my answer is a no. I don't think humanity will ever encounter advanced, intelligent alien life forms directly. We won't be going to their home planet to visit, and they won't be coming to ours either.

I mean, bacterial/animal life probably exists, but we can't really verify that. Anything from radio/optical telescopes that suggested something is in the "habital zone" is really just super long distance guessing.

So will human beings ever be able to verify life elsewhere? (interstellar travel). Even locally, do you think we'll find simple ancient life on Mars someday? Is it likely we'll encounter radio signals from another sapient civilization that made it to the electronics age?

Is interstellar travel even possible? Is life so rare that the planets who have developed it may never find us?

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@djsumdog
>So will human beings ever be able to verify life elsewhere?
Only if we find something on Mars or moons of Jupiter/Saturn. Will we actually? Very small chances, but at the same time, it's the best bet. Recently it was discovered that Mars might actually still have a liquid ocean of sorts, but deep deep underground, on the order of tens of miles. Deeper than we've been able to dig on Earth. So there could be something, but how do we verify it? I expect that the more we keep looking, we'll discover more biomolecules, aminoacids, simple proteins, we'll discover every major building block of life on Mars, Europa, Enceladus, but we won't come face to face with animal life, and if there's bacterial life on these bodies, it could be many decades before we'll find it and even more to be sure it wasn't a false detection because of contamination.
For Europa and Enceladus we might know something by the end of our lifetimes, as there are ideas on how you could melt through the ice and reach the ocean. For Mars though... we might never know for sure, cause I don't see humanity committing to dig down far enough.

Star Trek-like interstellar travel is not gonna happen. I personally think something like that is impossible. For traditional rocket power, you'd need a generational ark to go outside the solar system, and the range will be limited. The odds of finding anything in our immediate vicinity is basically null. We've used telescopes to study our immediate vicinity, and can't even find atmospheres that are clearly life altered (like having a high quantity of oxygen).

If I assume human life will go on indefinitely, I do think at some point we'll find a radio signal that we won't be able to explain, that will look artificial, that will look as if it could be carrying information. But I don't think we'll be able to decode it, and it won't have a societal impact as large as people would like to think such a discovery will have. But something like this could literally be millions of years into the future, and remember, any signal we might hear, would be from a civilization that might have even gone extinct by the time it reached us. If I limit myself within our lifetimes... I don't think so.

>Is life so rare that the planets who have developed it may never find us?
Yes. But more importantly, I think advanced intelligent life is what is incredibly rare. If there are even a handful of civilizations within our galaxy that are at about our level of development, I'd consider that a miracle. And I wouldn't be surprised if we are the only thinking beings in our galaxy right now.
Life could very well be inevitable if you get a planet with the right conditions. But I see no obvious reason why life would have a preference for evolving high intelligence. I consider humanity a fluke. A cosmic mistake of sorts. An anomaly. An interesting one, but no matter how much statistics someone throws at me (but there are so many stars, and so many planets, and even if only 1% bla bla bla) it's not convincing me that it is a repeatable anomaly. I need a valid argument for why in a different ecosystem a high intelligence would be something evolution eventually selects for. If intelligence was important for evolution, I'd expect the Silurian hypothesis to have some evidence behind it.

I think that all makes sense.

If life was as prevalent in our universe as it is on our planet, I do feel like we would be inundated with transmissions from long dead civilizations. You can't step on grass without also stepping on an entire pocket of bacteria, plants and insect life.

Intelligent life doesn't have to be as rare as a few dozen per galaxy. Even if there were 1,000 or 10,000 world that held/hold civilizations, the galaxy is really big and the window for the radio transmission era (at least hear on Earth) is rather small. So there could be a (relatively) significant amount of sapient life out there, but it'd still be rare to encounter it just due to the scale of the universe.

I'm not sure of interstellar travel is impossible. It probably is by transversal of space. But there could be ways we haven't discovered to travel faster than light, or jump distances without transversal of physical space. Still, even if one other civilization has discovered some kind of teleportation technology, the size of our galaxy is so large they could jump to wolds for hundreds or thousands of our years and never even get close to us. But it's more likely most civilization just goes extinct eventually.
@djsumdog @alyx looking for life on Mars on dumb. Going to frozen moons with water below the surface is far more lucrative and that's where extremophiles will be, shielded from radiation.

@djsumdog
Here's an interesting though: what counts as an extinct civilization here? Would all humans have to die to call our civilization extinct? Or would we be deemed an extinct civilization even if we merely forever lost access to advanced technology, the thing that would give civilization status at the galactic scale? (imagine we simply run out of the resources needed to build that technology, and we're unable to find alternatives).

Cause I'm starting to think that the latter could be a reasonable possibility when it comes to alien life. Was watching a report earlier that it was predicted that we could run out of helium by the end of the century. Why is that important? Because it's used extensively during chip making these days (among other high tech uses). How fast would our civilization collapse if we suddenly were never able to make CPUs at least as powerful as current Ryzen or Threadripper?
There are countless rare elements our technology depends on, and running out of even a single one could radically change society. For the most of them, you at least can argue you'd spend whatever energy needed to recycle them. But for helium... when that escapes into the atmosphere, it's gone.

So imagine the galaxy, filled with 10,000 worlds, where civilizations maybe even more advanced then us existed, but they still couldn't travel between solar systems, they couldn't gather up the resources of other worlds, and once they ran out of critical resources on their world, they slowly reverted back to a feudal society. They could be even more, 100,000, 1 million, 100 million, and we'd never know, because their small window of technological prowess, of being able to communicate via powerful radio signals, has already passed long ago, before we discovered steam engines even.

How tragic would that be? A galaxy filled with beings as smart as us, but without the resources to actually put their intelligence to use.

It's kinda insane how so much of our technology is dependent on a tiny number of company, like that one in The Netherlands that sells ultraviolet lithography to all the major chip fabrication plans (TSMC, Samsung, Intel). It wouldn't take much serious war or natural disaster to set our plant back a decade or two if it occurred in the wrong place.

Are you familiar with Göbekli Tepe or the Richat Structure in Africa? There are a growing number of people who think human civilization goes back past 12k~13k years. Göbekli Tepe is the oldest stone mason structure found, and the Richat may be the footprint of Atlantis. Many ancient societies have a story of a world ending snake (Quetzalcoatl, the serpent from the Bible, etc.) and a comet would look like a "sky snake." So these flood/snake stories could be about a comet breakup that may have caused a global cataclysmic at the end of the Younger Dryas period.

So there may have been a civilization of humans, that was at least at the stone age, or maybe even the metal age or beyond, that's now completely wiped out with very little trace of its existence.

@djsumdog In the last few years I keep hearing of archeologist discoveries that push back when various species of humans started, or when they left Africa, so it would not be impossible to cram in somewhere a new undiscovered civilization. The difficulty is, where are the artifacts left by the civilization? Clay figures, pots, writing in clay tablets, various tools, these are the traditional signs of civilization.

Even with massive floods, at some point you'll find something scattered somewhere because archeologists and geologists have been able to identify when and where flooding took place. So if you assume a flood wiped across a valley, you'll just go downstream, where the water would have settled everything it carried, and start digging for signs of the wiped civilization.

We could of course also be dealing with tribes that for one reason or another have their "technology" based mostly around biodegradable material. Less usage of stone, mud, clay, and more wood and plant matter, that would decompose and leave nothing to find for archeologists. They could still have had language, stories with basic philosophical concepts behind them, but expressed orally. You could have had civilizations that were intellectually advanced, but at the same time, you wouldn't be able to find evidence for it. At which point it would be like believing in Santa, with no evidence.

I've heard of Göbekli Tepe only in passing, and I just know that there's some fringe ideas about it being something, with little evidence to prove it. A geographical feature that looks as if it could be man made, but no human artifacts discovered.
I don't think I've heard of the Richat Structure.

I'm open to the idea, but ultimately it's important that we find conclusive evidence of human settlement. Even with cave men we've been able to find wall art and ash remains of fires lit by humans.

I've heard of Göbekli Tepe only in passing, and I just know that there's some fringe ideas about it being something, with little evidence to prove it.

Tepe is a full on site with carvings/drawings and structures that point at a specific star, and the site appears to have been in use for over a century since newer chambers are slightly rotated to where the star would be years later. It's a little sensationalized, but the documentary Ancient Apocalypse by Hancock goes into a lot of the theory.

Even with massive floods, at some point you'll find something scattered somewhere because archeologists and geologists have been able to identify when and where flooding took place.

So Hancock presents the theory (and a lot of others support this, but it's still considered fringe) that it was multiple comet impacts. Since it was at the end of the ice age, the massive glaciers would have prevented the actual craters, but there appears to be other evidence in sediment around the world consistent with a large impact. He suggests massive floods, in a matter of days, not months, and that what we see today by satellite are the remnants of an ocean that swept over Africa.

You might be confusing Tepe with Richat, as the Richat is a series of concentric circles in the middle of the desert. There hasn't been a lot of excavation, but even what has been done hasn't revealed anything. So it could just be a natural formation, or that cataclysm was so insane it wiped out nearly everything.

We look at our layers of pavement and concrete and massive steel super structures and it seems like evidence of the remains should be here 50,000 or 100,000 years from now. At least some of it should be a sediment layer a million years from now too, but it would all likely be gone at 1 billion years. Would a single meteor strike remove all of that in <100 years? What about 5~10 of them at once? It's pretty difficult to judge.

We still have no idea how the Egyptian pyramids were built in that time, or many of the other pyramid structures in other civilizations. Roman concrete technology was lost for a while too. People debate today if King David was even a real person.

The more I look at history, the more it's such a limited black box we pull out ideas from, based on the little that survived.

@djsumdog
>Tepe is a full on site with carvings/drawings and structures that point at a specific star
I might have been thinking of something else then. I'm just familiar with the name in passing, but history was never my thing. Probably associated the name with something else by mistake.

>that it was multiple comet impacts
If you have something comet sized that hits in an ocean, you'd get a flood, and maybe you can escape rock material being ejected and all that. If it were to hit on land, ice or no ice, not only would it form a massive crater (and even in the ocean it's likely gonna form a crater, the Chicxulub crater is underwater), but it would be a fireball mass extinction event, with little chance for something over the size of rodents to survive. Chicxulub was just an asteroid, and it was enough to put the final nail in the coffin for dinosaurs (the current understanding these days is that dinosaur population was actually already in decline by that time, the asteroid just speed things up). A comet would be far worse. Multiple comets... My point is, I don't think humanity would have survived something like that. A comet wouldn't just destroy a civilization, it would reset life completely.

This is why I mention floods in general, because flooding does occur all the time, and it can occur for all sorts of reasons. You don't need exotic events like comets. I remember watching a video on some ancient flood triggered from a land slide or something like that. A "simple" flood, while less fancy, could still locally eradicate a civilization, so it's something that remains plausible. A comet impacting Earth in the last few hundred thousands years, is not really plausible.
(I was looking for something else, and found this, relating to the Younger Dryas period youtube.com/watch?v=1uEvL9cbze )

>You might be confusing Tepe with Richat
No, I think I'm confusing it with Gunung Padang. (relevant info:
youtube.com/watch?v=zU-wQVAqQn
youtube.com/watch?v=OZGp6N3AHT
)

>We look at our layers of pavement and concrete and massive steel super structures and it seems like evidence of the remains should be here 50,000 or 100,000 years from now.
Some of it might erode even faster, but I don't think that would be the most categorical thing that would date our civilization.

>At least some of it should be a sediment layer a million years from now too, but it would all likely be gone at 1 billion years
Yup, what you'd want to look for are the sediment layers. And once material gets deposited in a sediment layer, it will stay there. Even for a billion years. But asphalt and concrete might not be as noticeable in between all the other rocks. And steel will eventually rust away, so you'll just have the sediment more rich in iron oxide. But that wouldn't necessarily be indicative of a civilization.

Some of the things you'd want to look for in the sediment layers to discover humanity is microplastics and artificially created nuclear isotopes. Actually, I remember hearing somewhere that they looked in the sediment of some lake or reservoir or something, that hadn't been disturbed by humans for a long time, and they discovered that we, as in humanity, had already left a clear mark of our existence in the sediment. And I think it was mostly about nuclear isotopes that don't exist naturally. Lead is gonna be another strong sign, cause asteroid don't deposit lead when they strike. So an uniform distribution of lead in the geological record could only have been caused by us.

>We still have no idea how the Egyptian pyramids were built in that time
No, we pretty much know. The thing is, everyone who insists "we don't know" think about the problem in short time spans, they think the pyramids should have been done in 3-5 years, like a modern skyscraper gets built. But Egyptians spent decades for even small pyramids. Cutting the blocks was done with sand abrasion, moving them was probably done with the help of rollers beneath the blocks (or maybe this livescience.com/45285-how-egyp), and for lifting them into place they would have used sloped ramps. Sure, it might take multiple days to cut, move and place a single block in the pyramid. But Egyptians had plenty of time, and slavery ensured they had man power too.

>The more I look at history, the more it's such a limited black box we pull out ideas from
Oh, I'm sure there's plenty we don't know. Even for something like the Roman Empire, that was likely one of the better documented old civilizations, I bet we don't have a clue about the majority of their politicians and local leaders. But we do know that the Roman Empire existed. By this point, it's really hard for something of a big scale to have eluded us noticing. We're at the point of refining details.

Coming back to the dinosaurs as an example, we know they existed, we know they died, we know they died after an asteroid strike, now we're refining how much the asteroid is responsible, and how much is it other changes in climate that had been taking place for other geological reasons.

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