It's actually really hard to meaningfully win a war in the modern era, based solely on how much more value is lost due to the damage from weapons than can be gained through conquest. The most likely outcome is everyone losing, where Iran might not have much central command structure, but they do have fanatical generals and soldiers combined with a metric fuckton of missiles, and even if the nation is a wreck, they keep firing missiles at Israel, US bases, and basically everything else in the gulf. This quickly depletes the Iron Dome and inflicts a ton of damage on Israel, and unlike last summer, there's no longer anyone they can try negotiating a ceasefire with. So Israel gets fucked up, US troops get fucked up, and Iran in general gets fucked up.