‘We have a serious situation here’: Fauci warns COVID-19 could be as bad as 1918 flu pandemic. https://bit.ly/2ZwoRl1 https://twitter.com/FOX10Phoenix/status/1283729395820064772 #fauci #Phoenix
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you want to get rid of the one guy in government who knows what's going on here?
> knows what's going on here
@mewmew @FOX10Phoenix Well #Trump is a dummy when it comes to this stuff but he needs someone better and more reliable than #AnthonyFauci
@mewmew @FOX10Phoenix He's been very unreliable and wrong a lot of the time, more recently leading Americans astray with alarmism and bad recommendations.
Constantly changing his mind about shutting things down, predicting things would be far worse than they ended up being, etc.
He's probably a good guy and likely means well, but his advice has just been lousy, ever-changing, and hard to follow. You can't ask people to trust someone who can't be consistent.
If you say, "if you don't take action, X will happen" so people take action - then X not happening doesn't mean you were inconsistent.
And changing his mind - this is a basic misunderstanding of the scientific process.
You don't understand; it's not that his predictions are wrong (while that can be an issue too), but also that his recommendations tend to be inconsistent. It seems that, not just him but the team at large tends to change their recommendations over and over again. Thankfully this doesn't seem to have been a problem fairly recently, he seems to remain consistent in that we need to reopen things soon.
But another issue is his chronic pessimism that he uses to sell fear to the people. The virus would have to mutate into a far more powerful and lethal version in order to even come close to the 675k #USA death toll of the Spanish Flu pandemic. 675 million people would need to be infected. And earlier on he said we should not take comfort in lower death rates in the face of rising infection counts. Why not? Common sense tells us that he is being at least a tad manipulative/misleading in that regard.
@lnxw37a2 @mewmew @FOX10Phoenix So? The issue is not infections but deaths. "Of course it's deadly, lotsa people get it" is not a logical argument pointing to lethality.
Remember that 675,000 deaths in the #USA were caused by the Spanish flu, so we'd need 67.5 million total infections to reach that number.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
It isn't 8% deaths like originally proclaimed, but plenty of real people without known pre-existing conditions, even in their 30s and 40s, are dead and plenty more are damaged for life.
Thanks to some people's politics and refusing to mask up, you can still expect a similar or greater death count.
@lnxw37a2 @mewmew @FOX10Phoenix
Well since we don't know the efficiency of non-N95 masks, we don't know that the death rate will increase substantially.
And remember to follow not the death numbers, but the percentage of people who get it that die. That is the true measure of its deadliness.
@lnxw37a2 @mewmew @FOX10Phoenix On the contrary, numbers are useless and tell us nothing. Percentages tell us how likely we are to die from the #Coronavirus. Total death counts tell us how many have. To make a medical plan it's necessary to know not only the likelihood of death but also the effectiveness of preventative measures.
@lnxw37a2 @mewmew @FOX10Phoenix Interesting. I do largely agree.
Do you think that there are more undiagnosed #Coronavirus deaths than falsely reported #Coronavirus deaths? I personally don't 100% believe the death count but am choosing to go along with it, since we have no better numbers. But if we have plenty of undiagnosed #Coronavirus deaths that should surely balance things out. Right?
So people's risk assessments based on a then-current view of death percentages will be wrong. Maybe wrong enough to have changed their behavior, maybe not.
Incidentally, I agree that the messaging around masks was a wrong move. They should have said "we need the good masks for medical people, but you can make your own" from the beginning, instead of "don't wear masks unless you're sick or a doctor".
The experience of Asia (where they've had multiple respiratory virus outbreaks over the last few decades) should have offered guidance that there was some perceived benefit to masking up. My nephew sent me a package from South Korea with dozens of government issued disposable masks.