@ChristiJunior @mrsaturday @matrix > pretend The Last of Us 2 was a commercial failure...
It was.

Autism engaged!
1st week saw the sale of 4 million copies, with second week dropping by over 80% in almost every country.
Ballpark calculation, that's around $300M revenue.
Some of these are copies sold to shops, not customers, which will have to take the hit, since they probably can't refund, but since this is the age of digital distribution, it's safe to assume these are in the minority.
Steam, and other publishers, take 30% of every sale, this seems to be industry standard (Epic game store is the odd one out with only 17% cut).
Physical copies get you even less profit, due to the stores taking a cut, and the additional manufacturing and shipping of a physical product, so even if they can't refund, you're making a lot less money off of them.
Naughty Dog made $200M, and that's a very conservative estimate, ASSUMING no one refunded it.
On a game, that according to Naughty Dog, cost $100M to develop.
Marketing budget not included (which is usually as much as the development budget for triple-A titles).
A conservative estimate would have Naughty Dog barely brake even on The Last of Us 2.
That being said, Naughty Dog is lying.
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain cost roughly $80 million to make, and was in production for 3 years, compared to TLoU2 *six* years in development.
With the largest salaries being executives... meaning, a pause in development doesn't mean the money isn't being spent (if they're not making money they're losing money).
It's likely that TLoU2 cost Naughty Dog upwards of $140 for development alone, and that's being generous.
TLoU2 is probably several tens of millions in the red.
It was as commercially successful as Solo: a Star Wars Story.