chat, after some shower thoughts, i think Trump is cooked no matter what
option 1: eternal TACO Tuesday. Trump promises A CIVILIZATION DIES TONIGHT, lobs a couple missiles at nothing in particular, then announces the GREATEST PEACE DEAL OF ALL TIME while Iranian officials remain completely baffled about what kind of dementia causes these imaginary negotiations. eventually the economy totally collapses under the weight of repeated energy shocks, Trump tries to abscond with the money, but no one will have him and he's quickly returned and removed from office either through impeachment or the 25th amendment. one billion years in federal prison awaits.
option 2: give up, admit defeat, and give Iran whatever they want to end the war, officially signaling the end of the American empire and letting every foreign country on earth know the US will fold whenever trade or energy prices are threatened. immediately, Trump is implicated in the Epstein files and either a "leak" happens where he's caught on tape raping multiple children on Epstein's island, or it's done through back channels to a house committee. he's nearly unanimously impeached and removed from office by the pro-Israel uniparty. one billion years in federal prison awaits.
option 3: commit to a decades long operation costing tens of trillions of dollars and resulting in far more casualties than Vietnam. continuously higher gas prices, energy shortages, and rampant inflation are now locked in for years no matter what. even beginning to reindustrialize enough to ramp up munitions production & refinery output will be an almost insurmountable task, requiring heavy use of the defense production act, and the ability and willingness to tell courts to pound sand & remove and silence opposition on national security grounds. naturally, Trump is incapable and lacks the allies to pull this off that a regular old establishment neocon would have. enough Republican representatives and senators are DEEBLY GONCERNED about FASCISM and DICTATORSHIP that the Democrat led impeachment effort succeeds. one billion years in federal prison awaits.
this would have been the best scenario, if it worked.
option 4: attempt a hail mary pass to shock & awe Iran into surrendering, including the use of nuclear weapons. even in the unlikely event Iran surrenders after a short nuclear bombing campaign, Israel will still immediately stab Trump in the back. every news channel in the west will be immediately flooded with accusations of war crimes, genocide, and everything else they can think of. a new arms race will be on for every nation capable of rubbing uranium and fluorine chemistry together to produce and test a nuclear warhead and functioning delivery system, and a rush to form alliances with existing nuclear powers will be on. widespread infrastructure damage in the middle east from continued Iranian resistance during at least the early days of the bombing campaign will deepen the energy crisis, costing the GOP both the house and senate. Trump is then impeached and removed from office. one billion years in federal prison awaits.