ERROR 301 (@realcaseyrollins@pleasehug.me) @realcaseyrollins@gameliberty.club

@realcaseyrollins Well depends on the prediction.. Any model that would assume 100% lock down without any social interaction would also show now growth of the virus at all. this of course isnt reality and any model will assume some breaking of quarintine either by choice or due to being an "essential worker". So there is a lot of room for variations in the model on that alone.

Then on top of that there is the fact that we dont completely know the R0 value of the virus either (how easily it will spread from person to person when no measures of any kind are taken to stop it). So... models are going to have a huge error rate on this sort of thing.

ΦωΦ

ポチの風を感じる・・・

@realcaseyrollins Thankfully the quarantine has helped a lot for sure.

@realcaseyrollins @r000t @tuxcrafting actually no, that was a rage post about how i prefer the whiny loud blockers that got made a pasta

A 27-year-old was put into a medically induced coma when she was pregnant, days into her battle with coronavirus. When she woke up, she couldn't hold her baby until she tested negative for covid-19. But on Wednesday, she finally got the all clear. https://cnn.it/2VzysVa 

2020-04-17, 13:45:38
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1251144792035246081

@realcaseyrollins when it comes to data science have infallability isnt really needed to having good numbers.. think about it like this...

Some people get diagnosed with the flu (or coronabirus or whatever) without being tested. Tests are, in some cases, performed later on either as part of a study or for other reasons. We then can look at all the diagnosis across the country for a particular disease and get a sense for how often those diagnosis are true in the cases of where they were later tested. From this we can conclude the false-positive and false-negative rates of diagnosis and from this determine how reliable a diagnosis without a test is, from this number we can adjust the death rate figures to get accurate numbers when someone hasnt been actually tested.

Now when we talk specifically about deaths however its a lot easier to diagnose COVID-19 then it is for other diseases. If someone dies of the disease they are late-stage and late-stage COVId is extraordinarily easy to diagnose vs the flu or a cold as it is the only one that will cause lower respiratory tract infection and scaring.

It is hard to diagnose COVID more generally but thats only because it is highly asymptomatic. An asymptomatic person is impossible to diagnose with COVId without a test. But these people are also not attributing to the mortality rate in any way.